Understanding Long-Term Welfare Recipients: Barriers to Social and Economic Progress

The Social Mobility Commission seeks a research supplier to conduct a comprehensive quantitative analysis of long-term welfare recipients in the UK. The research aims to identify who receives welfare long-term, understand their characteristics, and explore the factors preventing social and economic progress. Using longitudinal datasets such as Understanding Society, the supplier will: (1) develop a definition of long-term welfare recipients and analyse their prevalence and demographics; (2) conduct flow analysis to understand how people enter and exit long-term welfare dependency; (3) identify socio-demographic changes associated with moving into or out of welfare receipt, potentially using cluster analysis or pen portraits. The supplier will also conduct a 5,000-word literature review on barriers to progress and effective strategies, and produce a final report with findings written for multiple audiences including policy-makers, academics, and the public. All analysis must be methodologically rigorous and transparent. Deliverables include an analysis plan (April 2026), literature review (June 2026), emerging findings presentation (June 2026), and a comprehensive final report (August 2026). The supplier is responsible for all drafting, with SMC providing editorial input to ensure quality and accurate messaging.